Phoenix Area Real Estate Trends 2013-2015


Metro Phoenix's homebuilding recovery won't ramp-up again until 2015, and it's going to play out largely in the West Valley. - ZAZ Homes

The newest prediction comes from a number of the region's top developers, contractors, investors, brokers and analysts at the Scottsdalebased Land Advisors Organization's annual real-estate summit on Wednesday.

New-house permits will climb as high as 18,000 next year, along with the amount of homes built in the southeast Valley will decrease, Land Advisors CEO Greg Vogel told the crowd of over 500 individuals in the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown Hotel.

"Fifty eight % of the completed lots are presently in the West Valley," he said.

South-east Valley communities Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa and Queen Creek have attracted the most customers since the marketplace began to recover in 2012. However, the number of available lots, or dwelling sites, for builders in the southeast Valley has declined, and prices on lots in the region are increasing quickly. "By 2015, a lot of licences (for new homes) will be in the West Valley," Vogel stated.

John Graham, chairman of the Sunbelt Holdings, advised the team the region's homebuilding marketplace won't actually recover until 2015 or 2016. His company is developing Vistancia in Peoria.

Enticed by low new - house costs, purchasers spurred an uptick in building in 2012. Contractors began snapping up land in the region as well as other areas of metro Phoenix where they thought homebuyers would want to dwell. But, the impetus from buyers started to slow half a year ago as a result of higher costs or lack of homes in areas where they wanted to proceed.

Early in 2013, RL Brown Reports predict 16,000 homes could be constructed in metro Phoenix in 2013, up from 11,500 in 2012. But midyear, after seeing falling demand in some places, the dearth of available lots in the areas along with a constructionworker shortage, the housing - research firm revised its forecast down to 13, 000 single family permits.

Through October, 11,179 new-house permits are issued Valley-wide in 2013, according to RL Brown.

The median cost of a brand new home in metro Phoenix reached $285,342 in October. That compares with about $235,000 a year ago.

But he has been purchasing property within the west for when that part of the Valley becomes the top spot for buyers.

Graham said, "The West Valley has lost its stigma. Now, it is possible to find houses in the west that you would see in Scottsdale and north Phoenix." - ZAZ Homes